THE IRAN THREAT: An Assessment of the Middle East Nuclear Stalemate

 A Report undertaken by  Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed the Executive Director of the Institute for Policy Research & Development in London shows:

[….] There is simply no serious evidence that Iran has a nuclear weapons programme, had one in the past, or intends to develop one in the future. Under the NPT Iran has the right to enrich uranium on its own soil. The international community should pursue a diplomatic solution based along the lines of the Fordham-Thomas MIT proposal, whose origins lie in the comprehensive policy solutions on multilateral controls for countries housing the whole uranium fuel-cycle proposed by the IAEA expert committee. These proposals meet international demands for transparency and permit round-the-clock intrusive monitoring and inspections, while meeting Iran’s wish to enrich its own uranium on its own soil. Iran has already expressed its seriousness about this proposal several times over the last few years, only to be met with absolute silence from the international community. 

2. The international community should see such diplomatic endeavours as a precursor to implementing the IAEA Expert Group’s proposals on multilateral approaches to securing the peaceful nature of nuclear fuel-cycles among nations around the world. This would add credibility to the international community’s opposition toward nuclear proliferation by establishing transparent mechanisms and facilitating the legitimate interests of countries to develop peaceful nuclear energy. In the context of climate change and a coming oil crunch, the drive toward nuclear energy will continue to grow worldwide. Therefore, multilateral efforts are in any case urgently required to develop this process safely and consensually. The case of Iran provides an ideal case to implement this system for the first time. 

3. Israel should recognise that the impact of an Iran war would be fundamentally detrimental to its security, and increase the probability of its annihilation in a major regional conflict. It should recognise that US support for a military solution to the nuclear stalemate vis-à-vis Iran is not concerned with Israeli survival, but with sustaining US pre-eminence in the context of looming global energy and financial crises which are undermining US global and regional influence. Israel should in this context cease its military planning for a military strike on Iran. 

4. The international community should consider the potential consequences of the US administration’s financing of covert operations conducted by anti-Shi’a groups across the Middle East, especially since much of this assistance has proceeded without US Congressional oversight to proliferate the activities of al-Qaeda affiliated terrorist networks, which is likely to indirectly contribute to the intensification of the threat of international terrorism. The US covert anti-Iran programme fundamentally undermines European diplomatic efforts, demonstrates that US interests are to promote ‘regime-change’ rather than finding a genuine diplomatic resolution of the nuclear stalemate, and thus makes a military solution more, rather than less, probable. This programme, which thus emboldens al-Qaeda and provokes Iran, should be halted. 



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